In Celebration of Jacki Weaver: Best Supporting Actress Oscar Predictions

I am a lucky duck: I had the rare opportunity to see Jacki Weaver on stage in the Sydney Theatre Company's 2010 production of Uncle Vanya. I felt very privileged and ahead of everyone - who, apart from the rest of Sydney theatre-goers, can say that they had just recently witness the live aura of a soon-to-(hopefully)-be Academy Award nominee, and current 'IT-girl' of the moment?

This was, strangely, even before I watched David Michod's multi-Australian Film Institute Award winning Animal Kingdom, the part for which Jacki Weaver has been getting all the buzz. Weaver is a forceful presence in the film - she plays Janine 'Smurf' Cody with such subtle ambiguity that the overarching effect comes to be much more powerful than expected. In this way, she is a prime candidate for the Best Supporting Actress Oscar gong - her performance is reminiscent of some of the best winners of the support actress, as well as the support actor, category.

On the surface, it may seem that Weaver's performance is like that of Mo'Nique's over-the-top, cliched ham, that won the prize last year. But it is so far from. Indeed, they are both monstrous mothers whom have a quasi-incestuous relationship with their children. But Weaver handles the role with so much more depth, integrity, knowingness and understanding. No superfluous histrionics here. Everything Weaver/Smurf does is calculated to the bone --- yet you'd just never expect it. Weaver is more like Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton, Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men and Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds: villains with silent, wry intentions.

Personally, I'm also of the opinion that a 'good' supporting actor/actress performance should be one that leaves an indelible impression, but not one that runs away with the whole film, leaving all the other actors and the script high and dry. Though, admittedly, I am generally a fan of histrionics, sometimes less is more! And if you check out the list of previous supporting actress winners, you'll see that this is also generally the equation that the Academy adopts when choosing its winners (ceteris paribus all other variables - such as 'overdue-ness').

A few past examples of subtleness, wherein the actress did not take the film and run! Rather just let her performance and talent speak for itself.

1939: Hattie McDaniel - Gone with the Wind

1951: Kim Hunter - A Streetcar Named Desire

1958: Wendy Hiller - Separate Tables

1966: Sandy Dennis - Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

1976: Beatrice Straight - Network

1977: Vanessa Redgrave - Julia

1985: Anjelica Huston - Prizzi's Honor

1986: Dianne Wiest - Hannah and Her Sisters

1996: Juliette Binoche - The English Patient

2004: Cate Blanchett - The Aviator

and the aforementioned:

2007: Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

Weaver's performance does ring a slight bell with certain previous winning performances. But also, not to forget, there has been some pretty histrionic past winning performances too (as it's the only category where a character actor can take charge and dash for a home-run). So really, it'll depend on how the Academy's feeling this year, and where it'll go for histrionics or subtly.

This year, nevertheless, the cards seem to be falling like this:

1. Melissa Leo - The Fighter: playing an overbearing, trailer trash but ambitious and business-minded mother to Mark Wahlberg and Christian Bale's boxer brothers. Keeping in mind that the Academy really really love her, since her surprise nomination in 2008 for Best Actress in Frozen River, and probably would have given her the award had it not been for the five-time-losing nominee and eventual winner Kate Winslet. So she is, in some sense, 'overdue', and white trailer trash is always a winner, so I think it's pretty much hers to lose. The Washington DC Film Critics and the prestigious New York Film Critics Circle named her the year's best supporting actress.

2. Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech: a beloved kooky actress from the '90s. I've always been a fan ever since seeing her in A Room with a View (1986) and Howards End (1992), she's the gypsy-type variation of the popular independent-intelligentsia British woman that we see much of in cinema. Like Leo, she also a past loser, having shockingly lost her 1997 Best Actress bid for The Wings of the Dove to, not Judi Dench (Mrs. Brown) nor Julie Christie (Afterglow) nor Kate Winslet (Titanic), but the hideous Helen Hunt in the vapid As Good as it Gets. What were then thinking back in 1997? The other three scorned women of 1997 have now gotten their apology Oscars, will Helena finally win hers too? She hasn't garnered many critics prizes, but did manage to, so far, snatch the British Independent Film Award.

3. Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom: like with Lesley Manville, I know I shouldn't be ranking her so high here. But I'm hopeful for both cases. Weaver today got snubbed a SAG nomination, which out of all the major precursors, is arguably the most indicative of an Oscar nomination; it's the actors of the actors branch that vote for the nominees, and if the guild (which houses many Academy actor voters) isn't supporting her, then she is pretty much out of the running. But this is just me being pessimistic. I have a feeling Weaver will be included over the likes of Hallee Steinfeld and Mila Kunis. She's after all already won the National Board of Review and Los Angeles Film Critics' awards.

Weaver should get out there and start promoting herself. Ditch her thankless role in Uncle Vanya and go for it. But I guess, she wants to remain loyal to her prior engagements; after all, how was she to know that both her and the film would get such a positive reception in the US?

4. Amy Adams - The Fighter: Amy rids herself of her innocent self and notches up the Sass! She will get in! But she won't win! I find her a charming and exciting actress, can't wait to see what she dishes up in this role.

5. Mila Kunis - Black Swan: Natalie's nemesis; the one instigating all the drama! She may get in.

6. Dianne Wiest - Rabbit Hole: I have a slight feeling they may want a goldie oldie here, and her role in the film is pretty substantial, so who knows?

7. Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit.

The prize will ultimately be a three way fight between Melissa Leo, Helena Bonham Carter and Jacki Weaver. I think ultimately it'll be given to Melissa Leo - she's got the struggling jobbing actor story behind her (not that Weaver doesn't have that story behind her too), but Leo is American and that means a lot more than anything else! Helena - though also being in the industry for almost thirty years - is younger than Leo and thus, will have to wait! Voters may have long forgotten turns in Fight Club and Hamlet.